The current state of Turkey, albeit a remnant of the once huge Ottoman Empire, still has its attention turned toward its "lost" territories. With the exception of the occupation of Northern Cyprus, the circumstances did not favor the emergence of a policy to realize plans in this regard. The Arab Spring and the attitude of the European Union regarding Turkey's integration as a member state have changed Turkey’s plans. The turn of Turkey to the East changed the scene and affected developments in the Middle East, especially today, where her two neighboring countries, Iraq and Syria, have almost been wiped off the map. But Turkey is not playing a leading role itself in this burning area, and she is aware of this.
Both the war and the breakup of Iraq offered a major opportunity to strengthen the Kurds as a people and as a… state. Suddenly the Kurds, who had not played any role in starting the ongoing war, found themselves holding heavy weapons (the Iraqi army) and oil. The launch of the trade of "Kurdish" oil to other countries has triggered the vision of an independent Kurdistan to be rekindled.
It is certain that the Kurds will not easily let go of this opportunity. An opportunity which they expect since December 14, 1960, when the UN decided to return independence to all colonial countries, forgetting Kurdistan who was experiencing genocide, exile and incredible pain, and nevertheless remained dismembered into four countries. Despite their defeats and diplomatic failures, the Kurds never ceased to envision their independence. The moment arrived when their unilateral decision to export oil brought tension to their relationship with Baghdad, which decided from January 2014 to discontinue funding to them. One more reason for claiming their independence.
The truth is that the vision of the Kurds is closer than ever. The situation in the Middle East has returned the region to its status from hundred years ago. The drawing of new borders is inevitable. The big losers in the whole affair will be Iraq and Syria. The Kurds, on the other hand, will be the winners. This is what scares the Turks.
Turkey's position became even more difficult with the high vote percentage of Demirtaş’s party in the previous Turkish elections. The whole eastern part of Turkey voted for this party. The separatist tendencies have once again started to cause headaches in the country. This forced Turkey to leave her role of silent protagonist of the war, and take an active stance. While the country limited her actions to supplying the Islamic State in previous years, now she began to bomb the Kurds in Northern Iraq and to hunt Kurds in their own country.
The turnaround in the situation seems to have come about long ago, when the Islamic State changed strategy and began fighting the Kurds. Beyond the heroic Kobani, the rest of Kurdistan was supplied by the US and the West, not only holding a steady attitude toward Islamists but passing to counter attack, which further strengthened their will to establish a Kurdish state.
Turkey knows that now, there are only two scenarios. One is to have a powerful enemy on its eastern border and the other to erase forever from the map a population of 45 million inhabitants without a state.
Is another great war imminent?...